WASHINGTON - Prompted by evidence that Iran
is harboring top al-Qaida operatives linked to last week's suicide
bombings in Saudi Arabia and fears that Tehran may be closer to
building a nuclear weapon than previously believed, the Bush administration
has begun debating whether to take action to destabilize the Islamic
republic, U.S. officials said Thursday.
Officials in Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld's office are
using both issues to press their view that the United States should
adopt both overt and covert measures to undermine the Islamic regime
in Tehran, said the officials, who are involved in the debate. Other
officials argue that such a campaign would backfire by discrediting
the moderate Iranians who are demanding political reforms.
Although one senior official engaged in the debate said "the military
option is never off the table," others said no one was suggesting
an invasion of Iran, although some officials think the United States
should launch a limited air strike on Iran's nuclear weapons facilities
if Iran appears on the verge of producing a nuclear weapon. By some
estimates, Iran could have a nuclear weapon within two years.
Some Pentagon officials suggested using the remnants of an Iranian
opposition group once backed by Saddam Hussein, the Mujahedeen Khalq
(MEK), to instigate armed opposition to the Iranian government.
U.S. military forces in Iraq have disarmed the roughly 6,000-strong
MEK, which is on the State Department's list of foreign terrorist
groups. But the group's weapons are in storage and it hasn't disbanded.
However, national security adviser Condoleezza Rice and other top
officials rejected the idea, saying that while some might consider
the MEK freedom fighters, "a terrorist is a terrorist is a terrorist,"
according to officials involved in the debate.
Bush has designated Iran a member of an "axis of evil," along with
Iraq and North Korea. But until now, he's pursued a middle course
with Iran, OK'ing talks on issues of common concern such as Afghanistan,
while not attempting to re-establish diplomatic ties.
A formal statement of U.S. policy toward Iran, called a National
Security Presidential Directive, has been on hold about a year because
of internal administration debates and the war in Iraq, American
officials said. The document is being resurrected, they said.
Bush's senior foreign-policy advisers were to have met at the White
House on Thursday to discuss Iran policy, said a knowledgeable administration
official, but the meeting was postponed until next week to give
Iran several more days to meet U.S. demands that it turn over the
suspected al-Qaida terrorists. If it doesn't, Washington is likely
to react with harsher measures, the official said.
The United States has suspended a series of meetings between U.S.
and Iranian diplomats in Geneva at which the two countries - which
have no formal diplomatic relations - have been discussing terrorism,
Afghanistan and Iraq.
The suspension followed intelligence data, including intercepted
telephone calls, indicating that an al-Qaida cell based in Iran
helped organize the bombings in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, which were
apparently part of a larger al-Qaida plot that was partially foiled
by Saudi authorities. The bombings killed 34 people, eight of them
Americans.
The cell of 10 or so al-Qaida members is run by top al-Qaida operative
Saif al Adel, who is third on the U.S. government's list of most-wanted
al-Qaida leaders, following Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman
al Zawahri.
"There's no question but that there have been and are today senior
al-Qaida leaders in Iran, and they are busy," Rumsfeld said this
week.
Iranian officials have denied harboring al-Qaida fugitives, and
U.S. officials acknowledge that Iran has turned over some al-Qaida
suspects to Saudi Arabia and Pakistan and blocked others from entering
its territory.
The senior U.S. intelligence official said it wasn't clear whether
al Adel's group, which is believed to be in a remote area of southeastern
Iran near the border with Pakistan, was operating with the acquiescence
of at least part of the Iranian government.
Also driving the Bush administration's concern - as well as that
of Israel - are revelations that Iran's nuclear weapons program
may be far more advanced than previously believed.
Last summer, the MEK alleged that Iran was building a uranium enrichment
plant near the city of Natanz, unknown to U.S. intelligence agencies.
The United States is pushing the International Atomic Energy Agency
to declare Iran in violation of the 1968 nuclear Nonproliferation
Treaty. IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei is due to issue a report on
Iran on June 10.
The Bush administration will announce Friday that it's imposing
sanctions on a Chinese firm, North China Industries, for transferring
technology that aided Iran's ballistic missile program. The sanctions
also will apply to an Iranian firm, the Shahid Hemmat Industrial
Group.
Advocates of regime change want to bolster popular opposition in
Iran to the religious leadership, which has used its supreme power
to block much of President Mohammed Khatami's reform agenda and
is despised by many Iranians.
Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kan., introduced legislation Monday that
would expand pro-democracy broadcasting into Iran and commit the
United States to backing an internationally monitored referendum
allowing Iranians to change their government peacefully.
Flynt Leverett, a former White House and CIA official, said advocates
of that approach overestimated the weakness of the Iranian government.
"I don't think the Iranian regime as a whole is a house of cards
just ready to be pushed over," said Leverett, who's now at the Washington-based
Brookings Institution's Saban Center for Middle East Policy.
It's particularly unlikely that a new government would be in place
in Tehran in time to address U.S. concerns over Iran's nuclear weapons
program and similar issues, Leverett said.
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